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Within the widespread uncertainty regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and capture its head of state – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.