Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
