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Only two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just the winner citywide, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

It was necessary since they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I felt a little nervous initially: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of ballots added after that and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world where election day turned out kind of poorly for him, where the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump last year went for Zohran now. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to surpass 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I hope he does because afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That really surprised me. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these Republicans on Staten Island with a high participation. I believe there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, instance, the property owners and homeowners supported Cuomo. Thus there existed some opposition. But no, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote there was coverage on if the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key political leaders from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see more of that – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that each urban center in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.